Pakistan's Chasing Ghost

Pakistan failed to chase down a get-able target yet another time in Tests. The margin this time came down to 4 runs - and as they say - the closest defeats are the bloodiest.

Winning and losing is part of the game. Unpredictability is what differentiates sports played by humans from a game performed by robots. It all reverses when a particular outcome - be it winning or losing - starts to become predictable with robotic accuracy. This has what it become in case of Pakistan’s handling of run chases.

For Pakistan in the recent times, chasing in 4^th innings of a Test has become like being chased by ghosts. Whenever Pakistan is put to chase, it looks more like its Pakistan team that is being chased, by the ghosts, rather than Pakistan team chasing a target.

It can be argued that Pakistan was never a side good at innings 4 of a Test. Such arguments can only be settled by looking at the related facts across the eras of Pakistan Test Cricket history. So let’s have a look at it.

In all, Pakistan has batted 4th in a Test on 140 occasions where it managed to come out winners on 59 occasions, mustered a draw 32 times while failed to save the Test 49 times. In percentages, Pakistan has won 42% of the run chases, drawn 35% and lost only on 23% occasions.

If the targets and results are broken down into ranges, here’s the picture that it paints:

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PREVIEW - Polar Opposites to contest for Pole Position

Its method versus flair, its predictability versus flamboyance, its Australia versus Pakistan, and the stage is the most explosive format of the game – T20I. If, over the years, Australians have symbolized success through consistency, Pakistan has showcased the impact of natural raw talent.

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The Captaincy Debate

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Asia Cup 2018 - an ICC Rankings View

The last time teams competed for the tile of Champions of the Cricketing World, the last three teams to remain in the hunt were all from Asia. 3 out of the 5 teams to win an ICC ODI World Cup have been from Asia. The same 3 teams have also won the next big tournament in Cricket, ICC Champions Trophy. If this is not enough to underscore the impact of Asian Cricket in the World, 6 out of 14 International teams officially ranked by ICC for the ODI format are from Asia.

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Pakistan's ODI Ranking - October 2002 to June 2018

 Here's a quick look at Pakistan's ODI Ranking since the inception of Official ICC Rankings in 2002.

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The overhauling of Pakistan Test side goes a step further

England vs Pakistan at Hedingley, Leeds, June 1, 2018
Usman Salahuddin becomes the 9th Pakistani to make his debut in the last 12 Test matches, in a period of roughly 19 months. Here are some more interesting stats about this recent overhauling of Pakistan Test side.

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50 and a wicket for Pakistan on Test debut

Faheem Ashraf becomes the first Pakistani to score a 50 and take a wicket in his first over on Test debut.

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ICC T20I Rankings Annual Update - No change in Top 4

South Africa will swap places with England at rank 5 and 6 in official ICC T20I Rankings update after this year’s annual update. The top 4 T20I teams - Pakistan, Australia, India and New Zealand - and 7th ranked West Indies will retain their current rankings.

Afghanistan will swap places at 8 and 9 with Sri Lanka while Scotland is expected to do the same at 10 and 11 with Bangladesh and Netherlands with Zimbabwe at 12 and 13. Since the T20I teams from non-Test playing nations haven’t played T20Is with same frequency as of T20I teams from Test Playing nations, ICC is expected to apply special formulas for their comparative rankings.

Similarly, in terms of rating points - the fundamental factor in the rankings that is awarded for each match based on the latest ranking of the opponent before that particular match - the impact of annual update on Teams' rating points will not be of any major significance.

However, in terms of teams earning the highest rating points in the last ICC T20I Rankings Season - May 2017 to April 2018 - Australia finishes at the top, followed closely by Pakistan.

Australia accumulated 155 rating points in this period which is incredible in itself, however, this tally was 44 points more than what they had on May 1, 2017 which makes the last season of ICC T20I Rankings even more remarkable for Australians.

Instead, if the performance of T20I teams during May 2017 and April 2018 is compared with their current rating points, Australia's performance still stands out.

The other team that performed even higher than outstanding benchmark was Pakistan who amassed 150 rating points in this period. This is the second successive ICC Ranking Season in which Pakistan achieved more than 150 rating points; the last season they compiled 155 rating points. As a result Fof these consistently outstanding performances, Pakistan became the number 1 T20I team in the world for the first time since the commencement of official ICC T20I Rankings in 2012.

To conclude this brief analysis, here is a quick view of how T20I Teams have progressed since the last annual update of ICC T20I Rankings

Disclaimer: 
All future calculations are for indicative purposes only & are based on information publicly available about Rankings formulas & rankings at different points in time; minor variation with official update is possible
Official status to be shared ICC in coming weeks.

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England to claim number 1 ODI Ranking after annual update

England will return to the top spot, for the first time since December 2012, at the annual update of the Rankings on May 1, 2018. The overall rankings will remain pretty much the same with only 4 teams exchanging positions in the table. England will replace India at the top while New Zealand will replace South Africa at number 3. There will be no change of ranking for eight other ranked teams.

In terms of Rating, 4 teams – England, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Zimbabwe – will benefit from the annual update while rating of 6 teams – New Zealand, Ireland, South Africa, West Indies, Sri Lanka and Australia – will take a blow. The rating of Bangladesh and India will only have fractional impact of this year’s update.

More specifically, this is how the 12 ranked ODI teams have performed in terms of rating since the last rankings update on May 1, 2017.

The ICC Rankings works on a weighted average model for a period of last 36 to 48 months. Every team is awarded rating points for each match it plays within the last 36 to 48 months. The rating points earned since the last annual update carries full weight while the weightage of rating points earned for matches played between the last and the third last annual update is halved. Since 2013, ICC applies the annual update on May 1 every year.

On May 1, 2018, the weightage of rating points earned between May 1, 2016 and April 30, 2017 will be reduced to half while performances before May 1, 2015 shall be expunged from the calculations. It will be the first ICC Rankings table free of any impact of performances during 2015 ICC Cricket World or earlier.

England and Pakistan come out as the top gainers of 2018 update. Unsurprisingly, these two teams were the most disappointing performers of 2015 World Cup. Both of them were carrying the burden of below-par performances in 2015 World Cup and earlier, and as soon as those performances have been discarded from the equation, their ratings improve substantially.

From the nightmare of failing to qualify for the Quarter Finals of 2015 World Cup to reclaiming the throne within three years, it has been a fascinating tale of resurgence of English Cricket. They had slipped to number 6 in February 2015 and touched their lowest rating points tally of 94 in May 2015. Since then, their rejigged method and approach to ODI Cricket has been bringing them the results and, finally, it has put them back to the top of ICC ODI Rankings table.

The other team whose performance catches the attention is Pakistan. Around 19 months ago, they had slipped to their worst ever rating points tally of 84 while at the start of last ICC ODI Rankings season, they were facing an embarrassing possibility of missing the direct qualification for 2019 World Cup. Since then, it has been a fascinating revival that saw them accumulate highest number of ranking points in any ICC ODI Rankings Season in last 5 years. This is also the first time in 5 years that their Season tally has gone beyond the benchmark of 100 rating points.

The next part of this review of annual ICC ODI Rankings Update will cover more in-depth details and analysis of ODI teams in corresponding period. Here is the summary view of how ODI teams have performed in ICC ODI Rankings since the last annual update, to conclude this part, for now.

Disclaimer: 
All future calculations are for indicative purposes only & are based on information publicly available about Rankings formulas & rankings at different points in time; minor variation with official update is possible
Official status to be shared ICC in coming weeks.

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PSL3 Points Table Predictor

As the tournament approaches half way stage of the league round, the curiosity, discussions and debates have already begun. Fans of Lahore Qalandars are especially interested in permutations and possibilities that can take Lahore Qalandars into the next round.

The good news for LQ fans is that, even after the dismal performance of their team, mathematically, their team is still in the race. What combination of results can take Lahore to the next round? Here's a predictor that provides the means to satisfy that curiosity. All you have to do is to select the winner of remaining matches and the predictor table updates automatically.

Before getting on the game of predictions, do keep in mind a few rules of the game here:

• The predicted table predicts the final tally of team points only at the end of league round with no calculation of Run Rates or Net Run Rates. 
• The final standing of the teams, in case of teams tied at equal points, will be determined by NRR and other subsequent methods applied in PSL.
• The default result for all remaining matches have been set to 'abandoned'; this is to answer the hypothetical scenario of what if all the remaining matches are washed out.

That's it. Let the predictions begin, may the calculator be with you.

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Departmental One Day Tournament – Battle for the Semis

The league stage of Departmental One Day Tournament has entered into its final round with all 8 teams to play one final game before the knock out round – 2 Semi Finals and Final. Last day of the league stages will see 8 teams lock horns with each other with Semi Final berths still up for grabs.

UBL has clearly outperformed all other competitors. Winning 6 out of 6, and remaining the only undefeated side in the competition, UBL is already beyond the reach of other teams. Outcomes on the last day of the League round will not affect UBL’s position at the top.

There are two other teams whose positions will not be impacted with the results on the day, KRL and NBP. After winning only one and none, respectively, both KRL and NBP are out of the race. That makes the match between the league leader UBL and team ranked second from the bottom, KRL, a dead rubber.

However, the match between NBP, the team positioned at the bottom and WAPDA, the team currently at number 3 in the points table, is still pretty significant for the tournament. This is all because of the suffocatingly-tight competition among the 5 teams, currently placed 2^nd to 6^th in the points table.

The competition between these 5 teams – PTV, WAPDA, SSGC, SNGPL and HBL –  stands as fascinating and cutthroat as it can ever get. These teams are currently separated with only 2 points between them. None of them is confirmed for the Semi Finals, yet. But they all will take the field, in the last match of the round, with a genuine chance to occupy a Semi Final berth.

In the other two matches on the Final day of the league stages, 2^nd ranked PTV will take on 4^th ranked SSGC while 5^th ranked SNGPL will square off with HBL. Here’s a look at possible outcomes and qualification scenarios.

• If WAPDA wins against NBP:
• and PTV wins against SSGC:
• PTV will qualify (most probably at number 2, the final ranking will depend on the margin of results in SSGC vs PTV and WAPDA vs NBP matches)
• WAPDA will qualify (most probably at number 3, the final ranking will depend on the margin of results in SSGC vs PTV and WAPDA vs NBP matches)
• Winner of SNGPL and HBL will finish number 4 – only team with 8 points
• SSGC will fail to qualify (most probably finish at number 5, the final ranking will depend on the margin of results in SSGC vs PTV and SNGPL vs HBL matches)
• If PTV loses against SSGC
• WAPDA will qualify, finishing at number 2 – only team with 10 points
• 3 teams will be tied at 8 points – PTV, SSGC and winner of SNGPL vs HBL
• SSGC will go to number 3 [SSGC’s current NRR is 0.722 which is only going to get better in case of a win]
• If SNGPL wins against HBL:
• Most probably, PTV will finish 4^th and SNGPL on 5^th (unless PTV faces a thrashing defeat and SNGPL scores a thumping win)
• If HBL wins against SNGPL:
• PTV will finish 4^th and HBL on 5^th. HBL can not cover up in one game for the extremely bad NRR.
• If WAPDA loses against NBP:
• and PTV wins against SSGC:
• PTV will qualify, finishing at number 2 with 10 points
• WAPDA and winner of SNGPL vs HBL (tied at 8 points) will go through
• If SNGPL wins: SNGPL will finish 3^rd and WAPDA 4^th
• IF HBL wins: WAPDA will finish 3^rd and HBL 4^th
• SSGC will drop to number 5 or lower
• IF PTV loses against SSGC:
• 4 teams will be tied at 8 points – PTV, WAPDA, SSGC and winner of SNGPL vs HBL
• SSGC will qualify (most probably at number 2, the final ranking will depend on the margin of results in SSGC vs PTV and SNGPL vs HBL matches)
• PTV will qualify (most probably at number 3, the final ranking will depend on the margin of results in SSGC vs PTV and SNGPL vs HBL matches)
• If SNGPL wins: SNGPL will qualify with NRR 0.069+ and WAPDA will drop to number 5 with NRR -0.031- . HBL will finish at 6^th with 6 points.
• If HBL wins: (Most likely, WAPDA will finish number 4^th, HBL 5^th and SNGPL 6^th)

Following table provides a quick guide to possible outcomes and its likely impact on the final standings in the group:

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