Experience mandatory for success?

Sneak peek from the next issue of Scoreline magazine that will be available in January. Compiled before the recent Brisbane Test between Pakistan and Australia, analysis covers all Test matches played by Pakistan till then. 

Every Cricketer retires one day but there have been very few Pakistani Cricketers whose time of retirement was influenced by readiness of the replacements. From Fazal Mahmood to Hanif Mohammad to Imran Khan to Javed Miandad to Wasim Akram to Waqar Younus to Saeed Anwar to even Inzimam and Yousuf, none of them experienced such discussions during their playing time. For almost all of them, their retirement was not dependent on availability of their replacement.

Misbah and Younis Khan are also approaching their inevitable retirement day but this is probably a rare period in Cricket, if not the first of its kind, when retirement of any player is getting linked, apparently, with the availability of his replacement. Sheharyar Khan, Chairman PCB has expressed his wish for Misbah to continue till at least 2018 and the pretext remains the same - the team is young and probably not ready to afford the departure of experienced Cricketers.

Such endorsement of a perceived threat by the top most official of Pakistan Cricket opens up a whole range of questions, such as a) Is experience the mandatory ingredient of success, at least, in Pakistan Cricket? b) Is the team without Misbah and Younis is that young that it is certain that the performance of Pakistan team will only go down if it’s two most experienced batsmen leave it for good?

The common answer to these questions is affirmative but naturally, it is based more on perceptions, built and driven by sentiments, rather than facts and figures. There is no harm in digging into stats to find answers to these questions as numbers don’t lie nor they carry an opinion of their own.

Looking into numbers and trends is always fun as at times they do produce some unexpected pictures and tell interesting stories. But before we take a deep dive into the impact of experience in overall success of Pakistan Test team, it will be worth keeping in mind that the scope of this analysis has been kept specifically to Pakistan Cricket. The different scenarios and groupings have been extracted from within the history of Pakistan Test Cricket only, so as to exclude any comparison or benchmarks with other teams that may not have had the same environment and requirements as that of Pakistan Cricket.

Let’s start with simple categorization of results into different groups based on variance in experience and see how Pakistan sides have performed over the years.

Most Experienced Test Sides of Pakistan:

If the results of Pakistan’s different Test sides are summarized in terms of combined Test caps:

Combined Tests	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
400+	31	11	11	9	35%	1.22	29%
300-399	153	54	61	38	35%	1.42	25%
200-299	133	50	39	44	38%	1.14	33%
100-199	72	13	38	21	18%	0.62	29%
0-99	15	2	9	4	13%	0.50	27%

and if, the results are compared on the basis of Combined Test Runs at the start of a Test Match:

Combined Runs	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
20,000+	37	15	9	13	41%	1.15	35%
15,000-19,999	141	42	60	39	30%	1.08	28%
10,000-14,999	120	50	38	32	42%	1.56	27%

However, combined experience of the whole team is only one part of the equation, the other is the kind of experience each of those experienced players had. So let’s split the experience in terms of batting and bowling experience of the players.

Most Experienced Batting lineups of Pakistan:

For the sake of this part of analysis, all those innings are excluded where a player batted at number 8 or lower. The analysis covers specifically the performances of all batsmen when they batted within top-7 of the batting order. It does also include the numbers of bowlers who were sent as night watchmen ahead of any of the top 7 batsmen but in such conditions specialist batsmen also bats one spot lower than their usual batting numbers. Considering a Test side usually includes 6 specialist batsmen with specialist wicket keeper slotted to bat at number 7, the impact of night watchmen is averaged out while considering top-7 batting spots for this analysis.

In terms of highest number of combined Test Caps of top-7 batsmen of a playing side:

Combined Tests	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
300+	27	10	8	9	37%	1.11	33%
200-299	177	60	69	48	34%	1.25	27%
100-199	152	51	56	45	34%	1.13	30%
0-99	48	9	25	14	19%	0.64	29%

In terms of highest combined Test Runs by top-7 batsmen:

Combined Test Runs	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
20,000+	24	11	3	10	46%	1.10	42%
10,000-19,999	199	71	73	55	36%	1.29	28%
0-9,999	181	48	82	51	27%	0.94	28%

Moving on, if the different sides are compared on the basis of combined batting average (combined Test runs / combined Test dismissals), the summary looks like this:

Combined Batting Average	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
45+	35	14	7	14	40%	1.00	40%
40-44.9	125	43	47	35	34%	1.23	28%
35-39.9	156	52	64	40	33%	1.30	26%
0-29.9	87	21	40	26	24%	0.81	30%

In terms of combined Test hundreds:

Combined 100s	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
60+	16	7	2	7	44%	1.00	44%
50-59	16	6	6	4	38%	1.50	25%
30-49	153	52	55	46	34%	1.13	30%
0-29	219	65	95	59	30%	1.10	27%

and then, the comparison on the basis of total number of 50+ scores (including 100s and 50s) looks like:

Combined 50+	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
150	26	12	5	9	46%	1.33	35%
100-149	142	45	55	42	32%	1.07	30%
50-99	158	58	58	42	37%	1.38	27%
0-49	78	15	40	23	19%	0.65	29%

Most Experienced Bowling lineups of Pakistan:

For this part of analysis, only those matches of all Test players are considered where they bowled at least 1 ball in either innings of a Test. For example, out of 112 Tests Younis Khan has played, he has bowled in only 31 Tests. Therefore, his bowling figures are considered in only those 31 Tests where he bowled instead of all Tests he has played but not bowled a single ball.

In terms of most experienced bowling line ups:

Combined Tests	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
200+	17	3	10	4	18%	0.75	24%
150-199	46	18	20	8	39%	2.25	17%
100-149	144	50	52	42	35%	1.19	29%
0-99	197	59	76	62	30%	0.95	31%

If the grouping is applied on the basis of Combined Test Wickets:

Combined Wickets	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
700+	11	4	3	4	36%	1.00	36%
500-699	55	19	26	10	35%	1.90	18%
250-499	172	63	54	55	37%	1.15	32%
0-249	166	44	75	47	27%	0.94	28%

Then, if similar grouping is applied on combined 10 wickets in a match hauls, then:

Combined 10-ers	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
10+	22	5	11	6	23%	0.83	27%
5-9	92	42	30	20	46%	2.10	22%
0-4	290	83	117	90	29%	0.92	31%

Similarly, if the experience is summarized on the basis of 5 wickets in an innings then the performance summary looks like this:

Combined 5-ers	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
40+	31	13	11	7	42%	1.86	23%
25-39	82	31	31	20	38%	1.55	24%
10-24	158	52	52	54	33%	0.96	34%
0-9	133	34	64	35	26%	0.97	26%

A holistic view of these comparisons highlights some interesting observations:

• The win percentage of most experienced groups is higher than lesser experienced groups in all comparisons except for in cases of Combined Test caps of bowlers and combined 10-ers.

•  Intriguingly, the loss percentage of most experienced groups is also the highest in each comparison except for Combined Test caps of bowlers and combined 5-ers and 10-ers by the bowlers. The loss percentage for most experienced group of Combined Test caps by all players is also lower than the other groups. On the other hand, the loss percentage of most experienced group in each of batting comparisons is significantly higher than others.

•  The highest Win/Loss ratio in each of the comparisons is not the most experienced group but either second or third most experience group in that particular comparison except for Combined 5-ers.

•  From batting perspective, Pakistan has lost 2 Tests out of every 5 Tests when the combined Test runs of top-7 batsmen were more than 20,000 or had combined average of 45 plus or had more than 60 Test hundreds between them and lost 1 out of every 3 Tests when combined Tests were higher than 300 or combined 50+ scores were higher than 150.

•  From bowling perspective, Pakistan has won twice as many matches as lost when the bowling unit had 150-199 Tests, 500-699 Test Wickets, 5-9 10-ers or 40+ 5-ers between them.  On the other hand, Pakistan has lost only 1 in 5 Tests when the bowling unit was experienced enough but not one of the most experienced ones.

QUICK REVIEW OF RECENT PAST – LAST 6 YEARS:

The overall stats do highlight a few significant points but since the span of that data-set is spread across 64 years where Cricket has evolved quite significantly, it can be argued that any reading from the data of long ago may not be relevant to modern Cricket.

To address that point, let’s have a quick look at Pakistan’s Test Cricket in the last 6 years – starting from the time when Misbah took over this side after Pakistan’s infamous 2010 tour to England. Since taking over the side, Misbah has missed only 2 Tests as a result of suspension due to slow over rate on both occasions. Hafeez and Azhar stepped in as stand-in captains only for those 2 Tests. So it is safe to say that it has been Misbah’s squad all along, even when he missed those Tests.

The comparisons below covers the most and least experienced Test sides in that period based on same guidelines as explained for earlier comparisons.

Combined Tests	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
350 or more	8	3	0	5	38%	0.60	63%
less than 200	7	3	3	1	43%	3.00	14%

Combined Tests (Batsmen 1-7)	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
300+ Tests	7	3	0	4	43%	0.75	57%
less than 150  Tests	6	2	3	1	33%	2.00	17%

Combined Tests Runs (Batsmen 1-7)	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
more than 21,000	10	5	0	5	50%	1.00	50%
less than 13,000	11	5	5	1	45%	5.00	9%

Combined Test 100s	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
61 and above	7	2	0	5	29%	0.40	71%
25 and below	6	2	3	1	33%	2.00	17%

Combined Test 50+ Scores	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
165 and above	8	3	0	5	38%	0.60	63%
90 and below	7	2	4	1	29%	2.00	14%

Combined Tests (Bowlers who bowled at least 1 ball in the match)	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
100+ Tests	8	3	1	4	38%	0.75	50%
less than 50  Tests	6	5	1	0	83%	-	0%

Combined Test Wickets	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
325+ Wickets	8	2	1	5	25%	0.40	63%
less than 100	6	5	1	0	83%	-	0%

Combined 5-ers	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
More than 10	18	4	1	13	22%	0.31	72%
Less than 7	14	7	3	4	50%	1.75	29%

Combined 10-ers	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
4	20	2	1	17	10%	0.12	85%
0	20	10	6	4	50%	2.50	20%

Combined Bowling Average	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Win %	W/L Ratio	Lost %
less than 30	12	4	2	6	33%	0.67	50%
35+	11	5	5	1	45%	5.00	9%

If only Win/Loss Ratio is considered in the above comparisons, the difference between experienced and rookie sides can not be any clearer than this. Specifically in batting comparisons (the area that will be most affected by the absence of Misbah and Younis), the inexperienced group of batsmen have produced, at least, twice as much better results than the most experienced sides during the same period.  In terms of Combined Test Runs (of batsmen) and combined Test hundreds, the inexperienced units have performed 5 times better than the most experienced ones.

In bowling department, the performance of rookie bowling units have been simply amazing. It seems like, being a batting captain, Misbah has seriously struggled managing the senior bowlers while the junior bowlers have executed his plans with precision that resulted in almost invincible results from the rookie lineups.

CONCLUSION:

So, it can be concluded that it has not been the highly experienced Test teams of Pakistan that have performed the best but the best results have come when the Test team had a mix of experienced and rookie players. Highly experienced batting lineups have brought more wins but have also failed to avoid defeats more times as compared to lesser experienced batting units when they had comparatively higher 50+ scorers rather than higher number of Test caps, Test runs, batting average or hundreds. Bowling units have been the best when they either had a blend of one or two highly experienced bowlers along with a couple of rookie bowlers or a bunch of moderately experienced bowlers not when either it was dominated by highly experienced bowlers or completely lacked any experience in bowling.

Let’s assume if Misbah and Younis quit at this point, there will be no impact on bowling composition. But the Pakistan Test side that will take the field will have Combined Test caps tally of around 200 (the most successful grouping with W/L ratio of 1.42), Combined Test Runs total around 11,000 (the most successful grouping with W/L ratio of 1.56), Combined Tests for top-7 batsmen around 150 (the second most successful grouping with W/L ratio of 1.13), Combined Test runs of batsmen around 10,000 (the most successful grouping with W/L ratio of 1.29) and Combined 50+ scores of around 75 (the most successful grouping with W/L ratio of 1.38).

Hence, from stats perspective, it will be the transition of the side without Misbah and Younis that will put Pakistan Test squad in their most successful zone, not the inclination to prolong their careers in search of better results for the team. 

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